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News :: Elections & Legislation |
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Zogby's predicting Kerry electoral win, Bush popular vote win: |
Current rating: 0 |
by Sascha Meinrath
Email: sascha (nospam) ucimc.org (unverified!) |
02 Nov 2004
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In what may be a reversal of the 2000 Presidential elections, Zogby's prediction is now that Kerry will take the electoral college with 311 votes (compared with Bush's 213; however, Bush is predicted to take 49.4% of the popular vote (compared with Kerry's 49.1%). These are just predictions -- so be sure to vote! More details below. |
From Zogby.com:
Zogby International | Released: November 02, 2004Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)
2004 Presidential Election
| Electoral Votes: | Bush | 213 | Kerry | 311 | Too Close To Call | Nevada (5) | Too Close To Call | Colorado (9) |
Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%
The nationwide telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2
Here's how we got there... 2004: Repeat of 2000 Figures:George Bush (Electoral Vote) | UT | 5 | KS | 6 | | WY | 3 | MS | 6 | | ID | 4 | SC | 8 | | AK | 3 | IN | 11 | | NE | 5 | KY | 8 | | ND | 3 | AL | 9 | | MT | 3 | GA | 15 | | SD | 3 | LA | 9 | | OK | 7 | TX | 34 | | John Kerry (Electoral Vote)| ME | 4 | MD | 10 | | VT | 3 | CT | 7 | | IL | 21 | HI | 4 | | RI | 4 | NY | 31 | | DE | 3 | MA | 12 | | NJ | 15 | DC | 3 | | CA | 55 |
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| | Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142 | Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172 | 2004 Battleground States:
| 2000 | 2004
Our Call | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| %Margin | %Margin |
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| Arizona (10)* | Bush + 6.28% | Bush 6% | 10 | - | Arkansas (6)* | Bush + 5.44% | Bush 3% | 6 | - | Colorado (9) | Bush + 8.36% | Too Close To Call | - | - | Florida (27) | Bush + 0.01% | Kerry .1%
Trending Kerry | - | 27 | Iowa (7) | Gore + 0.31% | Kerry 5% | - | 7 | Michigan (17) | Gore + 5.13% | Kerry 6% | - | 17 | Minnesota (10) | Gore + 2.4% | Kerry 6% | - | 10 | Missouri (11)* | Bush + 3.34% | Bush 3% | 11 | - | Nevada (5) | Bush + 3.55% | Too Close To Call | - | - | New Hampshire (4) * | Bush + 1.27% | Kerry 5% | - | 4 | New Mexico (5) | Gore + 0.06% | Kerry 3% | - | 5 | North Carolina (15)* | Bush + 12.83% | Bush 3% | 15 | - | Oregon (7)* | Gore + 0.44% | Kerry 10% | - | 7 | Ohio (20) | Bush + 3.51% | Bush 2%
Trending Kerry | - | 20 | Pennsylvania (21) | Gore + 4.17% | Trending Kerry | - | 21 | Tennessee (11)* | Bush + 3.86% | Bush 4% | 11 | - | | Virginia (13)* | Bush + 7.00% | Bush | 13 | - | Washington (11)* | Gore + 5.58% | Kerry 11% | - | 11 | West Virginia (5)* | Bush + 6.32% | Bush 4% | 5 | - | Wisconsin (10) | Gore + 0.22% | Kerry 6% | - | 10 | Battleground State Totals | 71 | 139 | Current Grand Total: | 213 | 311 | * States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys. (as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)
(11/1/2004)
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This work is in the public domain. |
Comments
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A Fair Result, If It Holds |
by Dose of Reality
(No verified email address) |
Current rating: 0
02 Nov 2004
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Given that the majority of Americans don't want four more years, stolen or otherwise, for Bush, this would be a fair result and reflection of reality in the United States. A few may have voted for candidates other than Kerry, but it's clear that Bush has worn at his welcome at home, as well as abroad.
Maybe the next time eliminating the electoral college comes up, it will get more bipartisan support. This could engender a real debate on that issue. I can almost hear the sound of Republican wailing now, because nothing is more unfair to them than something that hurts their own interests. |
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Re: Zogby's predicting Kerry electoral win, Bush popular vote win: |
by Kevin from Scotland
(No verified email address) |
Current rating: 0
02 Nov 2004
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Would be poetic justice! |
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Re: Zogby's predicting Kerry electoral win, Bush popular vote win: |
by Sascha Meinrath
sascha (nospam) ucimc.org (unverified) |
Current rating: 0
02 Nov 2004
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I'm hoping that both the left and the right can agree on the need to eliminate the Electoral College. I'm a big believer in direct democracy -- and the EC definitly doesn't reflect that. But these are _extremely_ early results... a lot can happen between now and the time we all go to bed. :) |
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Re: Zogby's predicting Kerry electoral win, Bush popular vote win: |
by Aviva
vegetarianforlife21 (nospam) yahoo.com (unverified) |
Current rating: 0
02 Nov 2004
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As much as I wish for a Kerry victory, do we really want Kerry to hold the presidency without having one the popular vote? Surely it would show the American people why we should abolish the electoral college, but what kind of presidential power and respect would Kerry really wield? [Especially over Republicans?] |
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Re: Zogby's predicting Kerry electoral win, Bush popular vote win: |
by Meirav
(No verified email address) |
Current rating: 0
02 Nov 2004
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Turnabout is fair play! |
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Re: Zogby's predicting Kerry electoral win, Bush popular vote win: |
by Magnus
healthcarearight (nospam) yahoo.com (unverified) |
Current rating: 0
02 Nov 2004
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IRV (instant run-off voting) is badly needed as well as proportional representation. Niether of the stiffs who "has a Real Chance" represent the views of the majority of the people in this country. We need to open up the field of ideas to broaden the debate. There will still be a job for guys like Zogby who know and care about what they are doing. |
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Re: Zogby's predicting Kerry electoral win, Bush popular vote win: |
by Pause for Thought
(No verified email address) |
Current rating: 0
02 Nov 2004
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Speaking as a Brit living in Germany who sees unrestrained American power as being disastrous for our collective future well being, I am forced to view a Kerry victory with some scepticism.
A Kerry victory would force the French and German governments into a series of difficult decisions concerning the Iraq war. They would have to examine whether they would be prepared to commit ten of thousands of troops to Iraq to sure up what is an increasingly perilous scenario for the American forces. Such a commitment could give new impetuous to this illegal invasion and could ultimately make a success out it. Such an eventuality would be ironic as there seems to be a real chance of the occupation collapsing, particularly if American public opinion were to remain divided through a Bush victory.
Conversely, a failure of the 'old' European governments to support a newly elected Kerry administration would fatally undermine American internationalist traditions. New difficulties would be introduced in the negotiation of new treaties on issues of importance whether it be world peace, the environment or whatever.
Pause for thought? |
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Re: Zogby's predicting Kerry electoral win, Bush popular vote win: |
by meria
meria (nospam) meria.net (unverified) |
Current rating: 0
02 Nov 2004
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It would be a fitting justice. Although the republicans look like they've done everything to steal another election.
see: www.votescam.com |
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Re: Zogby's predicting Kerry electoral win, Bush popular vote win: |
by NRA4
(No verified email address) |
Current rating: 0
03 Nov 2004
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Dose said,
"Given that the majority of Americans don't want four more years..."
From the looks of it, Bush won the popular vote in a landslide. Guess your statement is in error.
Too bad that the Democrat Party could not find a real upstanding candidate to run...they might have actually won? |
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Re: Zogby's predicting Kerry electoral win, Bush popular vote win: |
by tr4nqued
(No verified email address) |
Current rating: 0
09 Nov 2004
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From the looks of it, Bush's landslide of misrepresentations and outright lies were swallowed...yummy.
Too bad the Democrat Party didn't sabotage the Fox News Corporation...They might have actually won. |
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