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Hidden with code "Submitted as Feature" |
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News :: Elections & Legislation |
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Zogby's predicting Kerry electoral win, Bush popular vote win: |
Current rating: 0 |
by Sascha Meinrath
Email: sascha (nospam) ucimc.org (unverified!) |
02 Nov 2004
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In what may be a reversal of the 2000 Presidential elections, Zogby's prediction is now that Kerry will take the electoral college with 311 votes (compared with Bush's 213; however, Bush is predicted to take 49.4% of the popular vote (compared with Kerry's 49.1%). More details below. |
From Zogby.com:
Zogby International | Released: November 02, 2004Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)
2004 Presidential Election
| Electoral Votes: | Bush | 213 | Kerry | 311 | Too Close To Call | Nevada (5) | Too Close To Call | Colorado (9) |
Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%
The nationwide telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2
Here's how we got there... 2004: Repeat of 2000 Figures:George Bush (Electoral Vote) | UT | 5 | KS | 6 | | WY | 3 | MS | 6 | | ID | 4 | SC | 8 | | AK | 3 | IN | 11 | | NE | 5 | KY | 8 | | ND | 3 | AL | 9 | | MT | 3 | GA | 15 | | SD | 3 | LA | 9 | | OK | 7 | TX | 34 | | John Kerry (Electoral Vote)| ME | 4 | MD | 10 | | VT | 3 | CT | 7 | | IL | 21 | HI | 4 | | RI | 4 | NY | 31 | | DE | 3 | MA | 12 | | NJ | 15 | DC | 3 | | CA | 55 |
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| | Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142 | Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172 | 2004 Battleground States:
| 2000 | 2004
Our Call | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| %Margin | %Margin |
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| Arizona (10)* | Bush + 6.28% | Bush 6% | 10 | - | Arkansas (6)* | Bush + 5.44% | Bush 3% | 6 | - | Colorado (9) | Bush + 8.36% | Too Close To Call | - | - | Florida (27) | Bush + 0.01% | Kerry .1%
Trending Kerry | - | 27 | Iowa (7) | Gore + 0.31% | Kerry 5% | - | 7 | Michigan (17) | Gore + 5.13% | Kerry 6% | - | 17 | Minnesota (10) | Gore + 2.4% | Kerry 6% | - | 10 | Missouri (11)* | Bush + 3.34% | Bush 3% | 11 | - | Nevada (5) | Bush + 3.55% | Too Close To Call | - | - | New Hampshire (4) * | Bush + 1.27% | Kerry 5% | - | 4 | New Mexico (5) | Gore + 0.06% | Kerry 3% | - | 5 | North Carolina (15)* | Bush + 12.83% | Bush 3% | 15 | - | Oregon (7)* | Gore + 0.44% | Kerry 10% | - | 7 | Ohio (20) | Bush + 3.51% | Bush 2%
Trending Kerry | - | 20 | Pennsylvania (21) | Gore + 4.17% | Trending Kerry | - | 21 | Tennessee (11)* | Bush + 3.86% | Bush 4% | 11 | - | | Virginia (13)* | Bush + 7.00% | Bush | 13 | - | Washington (11)* | Gore + 5.58% | Kerry 11% | - | 11 | West Virginia (5)* | Bush + 6.32% | Bush 4% | 5 | - | Wisconsin (10) | Gore + 0.22% | Kerry 6% | - | 10 | Battleground State Totals | 71 | 139 | Current Grand Total: | 213 | 311 | * States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys. (as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)
(11/1/2004)
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This work is in the public domain |
Comments
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Re: Zogby's predicting Kerry electoral win, Bush popular vote win: |
by Scott Edwards
scottisimo (nospam) hotmail.com (verified) |
Current rating: 0
03 Nov 2004
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kerry will give his concession speech at 1pm ET, noon here |
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