BASIC SPECIAL REPORT

BASIC Special Report 2004.1 · January 2004

Unravelling the Known Unknowns:
Why no Weapons of Mass Destruction have been found in Iraq

By David Isenberg and Ian Davis

For an HTML version of this report go to: http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Research/2004WMD.htm.

For a PDF version of this report go to: http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Research/2004WMD.pdf.

Contents

Executive Summary

Introduction

Part I: Iraq's WMD Capability

• Evidence of Iraq's nuclear weapon capability
• Evidence of Iraq's biological weapon capability
• Evidence of Iraq's chemical weapon capability
• Conclusions

Part II: The Ambiguities and Flaws in US and British Pre-War Intelligence Analysis on Iraq's WMD Capability

• US pre-war intelligence
• British pre-war intelligence
• Iraqi defectors and other misleading indigenous human intelligence

Part III: Conclusions and Recommendations

• Were the missing weapons destroyed or moved out of Iraq prior to the invasion?
• Were the weapons destroyed in the bombing campaign or stolen by looters?
• Isn't it a question of needing more time to find the weapons?
• Were the missing weapons destroyed many years ago?
• Was the Iraqi WMD threat overstated by Britain and the United States?
• What are the implications of these intelligence and political failings and what are the policy lessons for future challenges involving suspected WMD proliferation?

Appendix 1: Lest We Forget: US Claims of Iraqi WMD Capabilities

Endnotes

The British American Security Information Council

The British American Security Information Council (BASIC) is an independent research organization that analyzes international security issues. BASIC works to promote awareness of security issues among the public, policy makers and the media in order to foster informed debate on both sides of the Atlantic.

BASIC in the U.K. is a registered charity no. 1001081
BASIC in the U.S. is a non-profit organization constituted under
Section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. Internal
Revenue Service Code

David Isenberg, Senior Analyst

David Isenberg joined BASIC's Washington office in November 2002. He has a wide background in arms control and national security issues, and brings close to 20 years of experience in this field, including three years as a member of DynMeridian's Arms Control & Threat Reduction Division, and nine years as Senior Analyst at the Center for Defense Information.

Ian Davis, Director
Dr. Ian Davis is Executive Director of BASIC and has a rich background in government, academia, and the non-governmental organization (NGO) sector. He received both his Ph.D. and B.A. in Peace Studies from the University of Bradford. He was formerly Program Manager at Saferworld before being appointed as the new Executive Director of BASIC in October 2001. He has published widely on British defense and foreign policy, European security, the international arms trade, arms export controls, small arms and light weapons and defense diversification.

Support

This publication was made possible through funding from the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust.

Unravelling the Known Unknowns:
Why no Weapons of Mass Destruction have been found in Iraq

By David Isenberg and Ian Davis

Published by the British American Security Information Council
BASIC Special Report 2004.1 - January 2004

© BASIC, 2004

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