Some physician groups and health insurance officials have made the claim that practicing physicians are leaving Illinois for other states that have lower medical malpractice premiums – particularly Wisconsin and Indiana. This claim has been published in various newspaper articles and local news programs throughout the state during the past year. A typical example of this type of article can be found in the News-Gazette, "Malpractice Forums Talk about Reform," which was published earlier this year (March 5, 2005). This claim was part of an attempt by physician groups and health insurance officials to convince members of the public and the Illinois state legislature that caps should be placed on jury awards in medical practice cases. Otherwise, they asserted, the cost of medical malpractice premiums would spiral out of control and physicians would leave the state in droves.

As a result of this publicity and their lobbying efforts, these physician groups and the health insurance industry were successful in convincing the state legislature to pass a law that places a $500,000 cap on jury awards in medical malpractice cases. However, is it really true that physicians were leaving Illinois and becoming more scarce? This claim is easy to evaluate because the American Medical Association (AMA) publishes the number of patient care physicians in each state, while the U.S. Census Bureau publishes the population of each state. By dividing the number of patient care physicians by a state's population in a given year, it is possible to estimate the per capita supply of such physicians in different states.

The table below displays the patient care physician to population ratios for the USA, Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin from 1991 to 2003.

From this table, it is clear that the per capita supply of patient care physicians has increased during this time period in the United States and all three states. Thus, patient care physicians are not leaving Illinois in droves and becoming more scarce. On a per capita basis, the percentage change in patient care physicians from 1991 to 2003 was +19.2% for the USA, +19.4% in Illinois, +31.% in Indiana, and +29.5% in Wisconsin. It seems likely that these increases have been driven in part by the high incomes of physicians in the United States, which attracts immigrants from abroad with medical degrees. The per capita supply of patient care physicians in Wisconsin and Indiana has increased to a greater extent than in Illinois and the nation generally, which may be the result of the below-average costs for medical malpractice insurance in these two states.

Even though the costs of medical malpractice insurance are above average in Illinois, this state has managed to keep pace with the rest of the nation in its per capita supply of patient care physicians. Contrary to the claims of some physician groups and health insurance officials, there is no crisis in the supply of physicians within the state. Thus, this aspect of their argument for caps on jury awards in medical liability cases appears to be an inappropriate scare tactic.