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News :: Regime |
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Polls Show U.S. Support For Iraq War As Soft, And Declining |
Current rating: 0 |
by Alan Elsner
(No verified email address) |
26 Feb 2003
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Well educated and older Americans more likely to oppose war. |
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WASHINGTON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - U.S. support for war with Iraq may be slipping a little and opposition is growing in intensity, meaning President George W. Bush would need a quick and clean military victory to avoid political problems later.
The latest polls show a substantial but not overwhelming majority of voters support Bush on Iraq. An ABC News/Washington Post survey taken Feb 19-23 found 55 percent approved of his handling of the Iraq situation with 39 percent expressing disapproval. That support was down 6 percentage points from early February.
A Time/CNN poll conducted Feb 19-20 found 54 percent said the United States should use military action to remove Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The number was down 5 points from two weeks before and at its lowest level since last November.
A Zogby poll taken Feb. 19-20 also found support at 54 percent, but the number fell to 43 percent when respondents were asked if they would support an attack without significant United Nations or international support, while opposition in that case climbed to 50 percent.
Finally, a Pew Research Center poll last week found 57 percent wanted Bush to get a new U.N. Security Council resolution before going to war, while 33 percent said a new resolution was unnecessary.
"Whether it goes well or badly, this war has Bush's name on it. A lot of the support we see in the polls comes from people who are giving Bush the benefit of the doubt," said Pew Research Center director Andrew Kohut.
"But support is undermined by a feeling that the United States doesn't have enough of the world behind it and a perception that Bush has not pursued this as patiently and as diplomatically as he could have," he said.
SPIKE IN SUPPORT DISAPPEARS
Pollster John Zogby said a spike of support for war after Bush's State of the Union Address last month and Secretary of State Colin Powell's address to the U.N. this month, in which he laid out the U.S. case that Saddam was still hiding weapons of mass destruction, had faded away.
"With public opinion so split, this is very risky for Bush. If he goes to war, public opinion will rally around for a few weeks. It's the postwar complications that might become a problem for him," he said.
Pollster Jennifer Laszlo, a Democrat who has recently conducted four focus groups, said support for the war was soft and opponents were far more intense in their views than many supporters. Zogby's figures also backed this up.
"Republicans think this is America's war but Democrats more and more see it as Bush's war and they are getting more energized and more angry," Laszlo said.
University of Iowa political scientist and pollster Arthur Miller also predicted a backlash if Bush went to war without a new U.N. resolution and the campaign did not go as planned.
"Bush needs to get a second resolution through the U.N. and then he needs a very quick military accomplishment," he said.
The White House may be counting on the fact that Americans traditionally rally behind the president and the military once hostilities are underway. The question is, how long would that support last.
BUSH-GORE SPLIT REEMERGES?
Dick Bennett of American Research Group, a polling company in New Hampshire, recalled that the country was split exactly in half in the 2000 presidential election before the Supreme Court eventually handed victory to Bush over Democrat Al Gore.
That split was obscured for almost 18 months by the national unity that followed the attacks of Sept. 11 2001, but might now be reemerging.
"The fundamental dynamic underlying what's happening is the reemergence of the partisan split. People believe the war is overshadowing a lot of domestic problems, especially the economy. Even if there is war and it's fast and successful, those underlying problems will remain," Bennett said.
The Time/CNN poll showed some of these divisions: 71 percent of Republicans but only 42 percent of Democrats supported the war; 59 percent of men but only 50 percent of women were in favor; 63 percent of those aged 18-29 but only 40 percent of those aged 65 and older backed it; 57 percent of whites but only 34 percent of blacks were in favor; 59 percent of those in the South but only 45 percent of those in the West were supportive.
According to a Gallup analysis of six polls it conducted in December and January, blacks, Democrats, liberals and those with postgraduate degrees were the most likely to oppose an invasion of Iraq.
Pew found support among college graduates was 13 points lower than among those without degrees. Backing among rural residents was 16 points higher than among city dwellers. White evangelical Christians were the strongest backers of all -- 85 percent in the Pew poll.
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US 'Virtual' War Protest Jams Congressional Phones |
by Alan Elsner
(No verified email address) |
Current rating: 0
26 Feb 2003
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Tufts University students and their supporters march against war in the Middle East near the university in Medford, Mass., Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2003. Former President George H.W. Bush will deliver the Issam M. Fares Lecture Wednesday afternoon at Tufts University to provide his perspectives on the Middle East. (AP Photo/Chitose Suzuki)
WASHINGTON - Hundreds of thousands of opponents of a U.S. war against Iraq called and faxed their senators and the White House on Wednesday in a "virtual march on Washington", jamming many congressional telephone lines for several hours.
Coordinated by the Win Without War Coalition (http://www.winwithoutwarus.org), an umbrella protest group, the action aimed to direct at least one telephone call and fax to every U.S. senator every minute throughout the day. Organizers said they were far exceeding that goal.
The White House switchboard was also flooded and most callers heard a message that "all circuits are busy".
Tom Andrews, a former Democratic representative from Maine who is running the organization, said more than 500,000 people had signed up on the Internet to take part and a half a million more were also expected to participate without registering on the group's web site (http://www.Moveon.org).
"We have hundreds of thousands of calls and faxes that we know are going in. It's a first-of-its-kind protest and a tremendous success already," he said. "People are making their voices heard loud and clear -- don't invade and don't occupy Iraq."
The Web site had a running total of what it said was the number of calls placed. As of 2 p.m (1900 GMT) the number had exceeded 250,000. The web site was flashing the names of individual protesters above a map of the United States with quotes from e-mails sent to the headquarters and to lawmakers. Each comment included the name and hometown on the protester.
Some protesters themselves had difficulties getting through to their representatives. Molly Lanzarotta from Boston said she had to dial multiple times to get through to an answering service in the office of Democrat John Kerry, a leading presidential candidate for 2004.
Others tried for long periods but eventually gave up. Brian Fry tried to call from Cleveland but kept getting the message, "all circuits are busy." He said he would call his senators' local Ohio offices instead and try to get through to Washington again later or on the next day.
SET TIMES TO CALL
Activists were given set times to call. Chicago marketing executive Mary Rickard was supposed to call at 3:14 p.m, 3:19 p.m. and 3:24 p.m. The faxes from people who signed onto the Web site were also programmed to go out at set times.
Telephone calls placed from Reuters to various senators received busy signals at all but two offices. At Florida Democrat Bob Graham's office, a spokeswoman said they had received 400 calls in the first three hours of the day, well above the norm. At Nebraska Republican Charles Hagel's office, a spokeswoman said the front desk did not seem to be any busier than usual.
Andrews said the Internet had emerged as a key tool for the anti-war movement in organizing protests and instantly reaching tens of thousands of activists.
"It allows us to be in touch instantly with activists all around the country and the world. It's a tremendous democratic tool," he said.
Hundreds of thousands of Americans and millions more in cities around the world have taken to the streets in a series of demonstrations over the past few weeks.
However, the latest polls show a substantial but not overwhelming majority of American voters support President George W. Bush on Iraq. Surveys suggest that around 35 to 40 percent of the electorate opposes the war.
A Time/CNN poll conducted Feb. 19-20 found 54 percent said the United States should use military action to remove Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The number was down 5 points from two weeks before and at its lowest level since last November. Thirty eight percent said they were opposed.
Pollster Jennifer Laszlo, a Democrat who has recently conducted four focus groups, said support for the war was soft and opponents were far more intense in their views than many supporters.
"Republicans think this is America's war but Democrats more and more see it as Bush's war and they are getting more energized and more angry," Laszlo said.
Copyright 2003 Reuters Ltd
http://www.Reuters.com
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