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News :: Economy : Environment |
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Scientists Debate Decline of Oil Stores: Sooner or Later? |
Current rating: 0 |
by SFC via Joe Futrelle
Email: futrelle (nospam) shout.net (verified) |
16 Dec 2004
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[Note that the debate isn't about if, it's about when. No time is too soon to transition to renewable energy -JF] |
by Keay Davidson
Scientists meeting at the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco debated Tuesday whether the world has plenty of oil for centuries to come -- or if it faces impending shortages that might trigger economic chaos, even war, in coming decades.
On the one hand, optimists are confident that vast untapped oil reserves and continual improvement in drilling methods will assure plenty of cheap, abundant oil for Earth through this century and perhaps the next.
On the other hand, some experts fear a global-scale repeat of scientists' past failure, in the 1950s, to heed a warning from the Cassandra of petroleum geology: M. King Hubbert, who prophesied the oil shocks of the 1970s.
The most immediate danger is posed by the surging reliance of industrializing nations, especially China, on imported oil from other lands, not just oil in general, Stanford geophysicist Amos Nur warned the standing- room-only audience at the Marriott hotel, across the street from the conference's main headquarters at Moscone Center.
Nur pointed out that the United States had long imported more oil than it produced domestically. Likewise, China is becoming reliant on imported fuel to support its industrial expansion.
In what Nur called a future international "panic moment," both nations might take military action to protect their access to oil -- just as, he said, oil is probably the covert agenda in the United States' current war in Iraq.
Nur addressed a packed session titled: "Running on Empty? Oil: How Much, Where and at What Cost?" The questions posed in the session's name have been debated by petroleum geologists, economists and other experts since 1956, when Hubbert -- who worked for Shell Oil and, later, the U.S. Geological Survey - - forecast U.S. oil production would peak around 1970, then decline. He proved to be right; the oil embargoes of the 1970s brought long lines to U.S. gas stations.
Since then, experts have debated whether a similar peak and decline will come within a few decades for worldwide oil exploration.
On Tuesday, a spokesperson for the optimists was William L. Fisher, a professor of geology at the University of Texas at Austin. He chairs a National Academy of Engineering committee that advises the U.S. government on petroleum exploration.
"Relax, the end is not near," Fisher assured the audience. He said there would be plenty of oil to meet human needs until the planet transitions to energy sources largely reliant on methane and hydrogen gases later this century.
Historically, experts have seriously underestimated how much recoverable oil is stored within Earth's rocks, Fisher said. For example, today's proven oil reserves are "substantially higher than 20 years ago."
But unlike Fisher, Nur foresees big trouble ahead.
Chinese oil consumption "has begun to increase exponentially. ... Today, China is importing close to 40 percent of its oil from other places on Earth," said Nur, who has twice served as geophysics chair at Stanford.
And China's appetite for foreign fuel is growing: China plans to import half its oil by 2020, the Chinese Peoples Daily quoted a Chinese official as saying shortly after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Nur said. At that time, the same official told the newspaper that the Sept. 11 attacks gave the United States the "pretext to enter Central Asia" to ensure its oil supplies, and that the U.S. military actions would "have far-reaching significance" for China's ability to ensure its own access to oil.
Nur said he suspected the diplomatically worded Chinese statement carried a veiled implication: that China recognizes the legitimacy of a nation's taking military action to ensure oil supplies. Conceivably, Nur said, that means that China, too, would be willing to take military action to maintain its oil imports.
"This is a potentially emerging conflict that is huge in magnitude," Nur said. "The finiteness of recoverable oil and gas reserves is a fact. ... There doesn't have to be a third world war for oil, but there could be."
Other speakers at Tuesday's session warned audience members to heed the lessons of history. In 1956, when Hubbert forecast a decline of U.S. oil production, "almost everyone, inside and outside the oil industry, rejected Hubbert's analysis," says an abstract of a paper given by geoscience Professor Kenneth S. Deffeyes of Princeton University.
The controversy raged until 1970, when the U.S. production of crude oil started to fall. Hubbert was right.
"Around 1995," Deffeyes said, "several analysts began applying Hubbert's method to world oil production, and most of them estimate that the peak year for world oil will be between 2004 and 2008. ... None of our political leaders seem to be paying attention. If the predictions are correct, there will be enormous effects on the world economy." |
See also:
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1215-04.htm
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Re: Scientists Debate Decline of Oil Stores: Sooner or Later? |
by Wayne D. Pickette
waynedougpick (nospam) yahoo.com (unverified) |
Current rating: 0
16 Dec 2004
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If I could receive some support for the Heat engine, a device made of exotic materials (no metals) which would allow direct sunlight, and corn alcohol to be utilized for transportation vehicles. The oil crisis, and thermal warming could be dealt a critical blow. The heat engine is capable to work anywhere direct sunlight is available, and with any other fuel a burner can be designed to utilize. Since it is not an internal combustion device, we can precisely control the combustion to minimize effluents that are the results of poor and incomplete combustion. The heat motor is much more efficient than the internal combustion engine, therefore great savings could be realized by all utilizers. I have the material to construct two examples, what I need are a unimat milling device, diamond and tungsten milling heads. Of course, some time to come up with a device that shall equal if not surpass the microcomputer! It is much farther than just an Idea. |
