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GOP has Reason to be Nervous |
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by Josh Marshall, The Hill
(No verified email address) |
30 Jul 2004
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If you’re three months out from a presidential election and Candidate A is working the base and Candidate B is courting independents, it’s a good bet that Candidate B is going to be the next president — no matter how newfangled a strategy Candidate A’s advisers say he’s pursuing. |
A couple of weeks back, The Washington Post ran an article describing President Bush’s novel campaign strategy. Rather than tacking toward the middle to garner the support of swing voters, the president’s campaign is focusing its energy on consolidating and energizing its conservative base.
As the Post put it, “Although not discounting swing voters, Bush is placing unusual emphasis so far on rallying the faithful.â€
But is this truly a novel strategy? Not really. It’s actually a strategy as old as presidential politics itself — one so well-known that there’s even a name reserved for presidents who use it as a reelection strategy … one-termers.
Democrats may see red when Bush tries to whip up the gay-marriage issue by calling for a constitutional ban, or going after John Kerry’s war record, or getting surrogates to dish out red meat in the new Sandy Berger classified-documents dustup. But these are really signs of a campaign that is increasingly pessimistic about its chances of turning undecided voters to its cause and trying to find some way to change the political lay of the land.
An incumbent campaign with the wind at its back tries to keep its candidate above the political fray and focused on appeals to the political middle. The game plan is always to appear above politics — on the model of Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1996.
It’s the losers who oscillate between nailing down the base and swinging for the fences with desperate gambits. Think of the example of the elder George Bush with his screechy, culture-war Houston convention aimed at mollifying restive right-wingers, followed by antic jabs at Clinton over the character issue.
If you’re three months out from a presidential election and Candidate A is working the base and Candidate B is courting independents, it’s a good bet that Candidate B is going to be the next president — no matter how newfangled a strategy Candidate A’s advisers say he’s pursuing.
Some of the difficulties of the Bush campaign have been obscured by the near deadlock in public-opinion polls. Kerry has led in the majority of polls in recent weeks, but usually right within the margin of error.
Yet even that data can be deceiving. As veteran Washington-watcher Charlie Cook noted last week, even a stable, dead-even race is pretty bad news for an incumbent like Bush, because undecided voters tend to break heavily in favor of the challenger.
An incumbent president gets about what his numbers are in the head-to-head match-ups. It’s the challenger who scoops up most of the remaining undecideds.
As Cook put it, “this race has settled into a place that is not at all good for an incumbent, is remarkably stable, and one that is terrifying many Republican lawmakers, operatives and activists.â€
The one bright spot on the horizon for the Bush administration has been the undeniable fact that the economy has moved into a brisker phase of recovery since the beginning of 2004, even if the effects for voters are still to be felt in many parts of the electorate. Yet even that bright spot may be dimmer than expected. At a meeting of the Republican Governors Association 10 days ago, GOP strategist Bill McInturff new unveiled polling data showing that voters remain skeptical about Republican claims of a rebounding economy.
All the caveats apply, of course. The nation is still divided along deeply etched ideological lines. Many swing states remain too close to call. Unpredictable events overseas could still play a decisive role. But if you see Republicans acting panicked and nervous in the next couple of months, remember: They have good reason.
© 2004 The Hill
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