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Peace Index / The majority wants disengagement |
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by haaretz via gehrig
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12 May 2004
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Israeli poll data: "A clear majority believes that in today's reality, the settlements harm Israel's national interest" |
Peace Index / The majority wants disengagement
By Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Dr. Tamar Hermann
Even though the results of the Likud referendum showed a majority opposing the unilateral disengagement plan, the Peace Index survey reveals a clear majority - not only in the general public but also among the Likud voters in the latest election - that supports Sharon's plan. Indeed, a clear majority believe Sharon's decision to hold the referendum only among Likud members was a mistake from the democratic standpoint. However, the proportion of those who think he should resign because of the results is small, while the majority think he should not resign from his post and, in fact, should keep working for the plan's implementation by other means.
The proportion of those who describe their attitude toward the settlers as sympathetic or very sympathetic, in light of the possibility that the plan is implemented and the Gaza settlers are evacuated from their homes, is much larger than the proportion of those who express a lack of sympathy or indifference toward them. Nevertheless, the majority favor a forced evacuation - including the use of military force - if the plan is adopted and some residents of the settlements actively resist.
A clear majority believes that in today's reality, the settlements harm Israel's national interest, and the numbers of those who are prepared for an evacuation of all the West Bank settlements if eventually negotiations with the Palestinians are renewed, and achieving peace depends solely on the issue of evacuating settlements, are clearly higher than the numbers of those who oppose evacuation even in those circumstances.
If the right-wing parties leave the current government following a decision to implement the disengagement plan in any case, today a clear majority of those surveyed favor setting up a government under Sharon that includes the Labor Party, and a majority views Labor's joining such a government as a logical and desirable step from its standpoint.
Those are the main findings of the Peace Index survey that was conducted for April 2004 on Tuesday-Thursday, May 4-6, after the results of the Likud referendum on the disengagement plan were publicized.
No decline
The publicizing of the Likud members' vote against the unilateral disengagement plan that Sharon presented for a referendum last week did not spark a decline in support among the wider public. Thus, today 59 percent of the whole Jewish public defined themselves as quite or very supportive of the plan, compared to only 34 percent who said they were quite or strongly opposed to it (7 percent did not know). A segmentation of these results by voting for the Knesset in the latest elections shows that today even among Likud voters a majority support the plan - 59 percent compared to 35 percent who oppose it. In other words, the preferences of the voters for this party are clearly different from those of its members. A similar picture of support for the plan, though with a larger majority in favor of it, emerges among voters for Shinui (90.5 percent), Labor (84 percent), and Meretz (82 percent). Conversely, there is a majority opposing the plan among voters for the National Union (71 percent), Shas (67 percent), and the National Religious Party (64 percent).
It is noteworthy that in response to the question of whether the unilateral disengagement plan decreases the chances of a future peace agreement with the Palestinians since it ignores their side, a 52 percent majority of the entire Jewish public believe the plan's unilateralism does not decrease the chances of reaching a future agreement, compared to 31 percent who think it does diminish those chances (17% did not know or thought there was no chance of reaching a peace agreement in any case).
Only among Meretz voters does a majority (54.5 percent) think the plan's unilateralism hurts the chances for peace (36 percent of them said the unilateralism does not decrease the chances of reaching a settlement and 9.5 percent did not know).
Religious influence
A segmentation by degree of religiosity shows, as was also found in analyzing the results of the referendum, that the religiosity factor indeed has a crucial effect on preferences regarding the plan. Thus, while 85 percent of the ultra-Orthodox oppose disengagement and so do 67 percent of those defining themselves as religious, only 38 percent of the traditional and 17 percent of the secular oppose it.
In view of the wide gap we have seen between the results of the Likud referendum and the preferences of the general public - a majority of opponents in the referendum and a majority of supporters in the survey - it is no surprise that a 75 percent majority say Sharon's decision to hold a referendum only among Likud members was mistaken from the democratic standpoint (19 percent say it was appropriate and 6 percent do not know). A breakdown of the answers to this question by voting reveals a particularly interesting finding: this majority exists among voters for all the parties without exception, so that even voters for Likud, the party whose members were given the right to vote in the referendum, believe that democratically speaking this was the wrong step to take. This does not mean the public opposes referendums in principle. Actually, the opposite is true: today, as in the past, a clear majority (66 percent) believe that in cases of fateful decisions, it is appropriate also to ask for the public's opinion via a referendum (only 28 percent think the leaders should decide by themselves since that is what they were elected to do). Note that this view is shared by voters for all the large parties except Meretz, a majority (54.5 percent) of whose voters oppose referendums in principle and prefer to leave matters totally in the leaders' hands (only 27 percent of them favor referendums, and the rest have no clear opinion on the matter).
Despite Sharon's failure in terms of his party members' support for his policy, an overwhelming majority of the public - 79 percent - do not think he should resign from his post because of the referendum results (17 percent think he should resign and 4 percent do not know). A majority hold this view among all the large parties except Meretz, which is split exactly in half with 50 percent saying Sharon should resign in light of the referendum results and about the same number saying he should not.
And what now? We found that most of the public does not view the referendum results as final. Thus, 66 percent responded that Sharon should keep working to implement the plan by other means, for example, by turning to the Knesset and asking it to approve the plan's implementation (29 percent think he should stop promoting the plan and 5 percent do not know).
We noted that the majority do not see the disengagement plan's unilateralism as a significant obstacle to a future peace agreement. We found that the public likewise does not see the other factor that could have worked against the plan - the strategic importance of the settlements that were to be evacuated - as an argument against it. Some 52 percent believe that in the current reality the settlements are quite or very harmful to Israel's national interest, with only 38 percent saying they are quite or very beneficial to the national interest (10 percent do not know).
This sheds light on the finding that a majority of 53 percent (vs. 40 percent) believe that if negotiations with the Palestinians are eventually renewed and if reaching a peace agreement with them depends solely on the question of evacuating the settlements, Israel should agree to evacuate all the West Bank settlements. Looking at the answers to this question by voting shows that a majority opposing evacuation of all the settlements under these conditions is found only among voters for the National Union, Shas, and the NRP. Likud voters are split, with a very slight lead for those favoring evacuation - 47 percent vs. 44 percent. In the framework of the unilateral plan as well, there is support for evacuating the Gaza settlements even if it means using force against settlers who refuse to be evacuated: 58 percent think or are certain that the government should evacuate Gaza settlers against their will even if it requires force, compared to 35 percebt who say that if there is resistance, the settlers should not be forceably evacuated.
We asked the interviewees' opinion of the readiness of Jewish residents of the territories to leave their settlements in return for adequate financial compensation. Views on this question vary. Thus, 24 percent of the public in general believe that all or most of the residents would leave for sufficient compensation, 23 percent think about half the settlers would be ready to leave on these terms, and 46 percent say only a minority, or none, of the settlers would be ready to leave for adequate financial compensation (the rest did not know). However, when we cross-checked the answers to this question with the answers to a question on degree of personal closeness to the settlers (21 percent of the interviewees said they have ties of family, friendship, or work with settlers while 78 percent said they have no such ties), we found that those without such personal connections believe a higher proportion of settlers would agree to leave for financial compensation (all or a majority of settlers, 28 percent; about half the settlers, 26 percent; a minority or no settlers, 46 percent) compared to those with personal ties to the settler community, who see a lower readiness for evacuation in return for compensation (all or a majority of settlers, 18 percent; about half the settlers, 26 percent; a minority or no settlers, 62 percent).
Does this mean the general public is currently without much empathy toward the Gaza settlers even when an evacuation is on the horizon? It turns out, in fact, that a majority (53.5 percent) say they feel quite or very sympathetic toward the Gaza settlers given that they are likely to be evacuated from their homes if the disengagement plan is implemented, whereas 20 percent say they have no concern or are indifferent toward this community and 21 percent express a moderate or strong lack of sympathy toward them. A breakdown of the attitudes toward the Gaza settlers by religiosity shows the expected gaps: 87 percent of the ultra-Orthodox, 74.5 percent of the religious, and 61 percent of the traditional expressed warm feelings toward them compared to only 45% of those defining themselves as secular. Among the unsympathetic, there is not even one person in the ultra-Orthodox group, 16 percent in the religious group, 18 percent of the traditional, compared to 30 percent of the secular.
A segmentation by party voting shows that most of Shas (90 percent), National Union (86 percent), NRP (77 percent), and Likud (64 percent) voters are sympathetic toward the settlers, with Labor voters divided among 31 percent who are sympathetic, 31 percent who are indifferent and 37 percent who are unsympathetic to one degree or another.
For Shinui and Meretz voters there is a different picture that shows a basic similarity on this issue, with the rate of the unsympathetic (44 percent for Meretz, 41.5 percent for Shinui) exceeding the proportion of the indifferent (33 percent for Meretz, 36 percent for Shinui) and of the sympathetic (23 percent for Meretz, 22 percent for Shinui).
And if Sharon keeps promoting the disengagement plan despite the results of the Likud referendum and the right-wing parties bolt the government in protest, a majority believe he would be right to propose that Labor join the government, with 56 percent in favor and 30 percent opposing it. From the Labor Party's standpoint, the majority think it would be wise to accept a Sharon offer to join the government, 62 percent in favor compared to 21 percent against. The highest rate of support for Sharon offering Labor to join was found among voters for Labor, 82 percent, and among Shinui and Meretz voters, 81 percent and 82 percent, respectively). A lower rate of support, but still higher than the rate of opposition, was found among Likud (52 percent) and National Union (57 percent) voters. A majority of opponents of Sharon offering Labor to join the government was found, as expected, among NRP voters, with 54.5 percent opposed and 23 percent in favor, and among Shas voters (even though this party is now outside the government and Labor's joining it would not harm it politically), with 40 percent against and 35 percent in favor.
A somewhat different picture emerges among voters for some of the parties regarding the Labor Party's standpoint on joining a government headed by Sharon. Whereas a majority of National Union (86 percent), Labor, (79.5 percent), Shinui (72 percent) and Likud (60 percent) voters think logic requires Labor to accept such an offer, a majority (54.5 percent) of Meretz voters say it should reject a proposal to join a Sharon government (vs. 36 percent).
The Oslo Index for this month came to 35.8 (Jewish sample, 30.8), and the Negotiation Index stood at 51.1 (Jewish sample, 47.5). The Peace Index project is conducted at the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research of Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Dr. Tamar Hermann. The telephone interviews were conducted by the B. I. Cohen Institute of Tel Aviv University from May 4-6, and included 581 interviewees who represent the adult Jewish and Arab population of Israel (including the territories and the kibbutzim). The sampling error for a sample of this size is about 4.5 percent in each direction.
(c) 2004, Haaretz
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