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Arafat Versus His Own Palestinian Authority |
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by haaretz via gehrig
(No verified email address) |
09 May 2003
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Again Chairman Arafat is showing that he'd rather be the absolute leader of a stateless people than less-than-absolute leader of a Palestinian state. |
Ya'alon: Main threat to Abu Mazen from Arafat, not Hamas
By Amos Harel
Lieutenant General Moshe Ya'alon, the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, sees the recent developments in the Palestinian Authority as "an authentic internal development, and the battle has not yet been decided." Ya'alon points to PA Chairman Yasser Arafat, and not the Islamist extremists, as the greatest threat to the new government of Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), who was appointed last month as the PA's first prime minister.
Speaking to Haaretz on the eve of Israel's 55th Independence Day, Ya'alon declared that overall, given the circumstances, this was not such a bad year. Certainly it was better than its predecessor. Ya'alon deems Israel's situation much improved from a year ago, despite the many casualties. The Iraqi threat has been removed, thanks to the United States; Syria will think twice before igniting the northern border; and the IDF-Shin Bet response to the threat of Palestinian terror is much more effective than it was in the past, even if the terrorists' motivation has not declined. Ya'alon also sees a good chance for an internal revolution in Iran that would topple the ayatollahs.
Ya'alon denied that recent Military Intelligence assessments of developments in the PA have turned sour, after all the great expectations, which he himself promoted.
"This is not a question of sourness, but of a very careful look at what is happening. The data have changed. [Abu Mazen's] intention was to carry out [U.S. President George] Bush's speech: a reformed government with one decision-maker, who would be the prime minister rather than the chairman [Yasser Arafat. Ya'alon never mentions Arafat by name - A.H.]; security reform, with three security services instead of 14, all of which would answer to the prime minister; and economic reform, in which money would be managed and supervised so that it did not finance terror.
"That was the platform on which Abu Mazen was elected - but along the way, the chairman managed to curtail his authority. We've gone down from half the process [of Palestinian reform] to one-fourth. We certainly identified an opportunity here with respect to a new leadership that waves the banner of halting terrorism, but we also pointed out the risks. The principal threat [to Abu Mazen's success] will not be from Hamas, but from the chairman."
Intention, effort and results
Ya'alon said that the new leadership "has so far done nothing. We hear talk about intentions, but the leadership must get organized, reshuffle the security services and disarm Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Since 1994, the PA has led a marriage between a state and gangs that were partially armed and funded by the chairman. Now, the PA must not make do with words; it must start to demonstrate intention, effort and results. If intention and effort are there, we will respond accordingly, on the assumption that results will take longer."
Ya'alon is convinced that the PA's security services are capable of dealing with the terrorist organizations if they are ordered to do so. "But we must point out the risks: that instead of dealing with Hamas, they will reach an understanding on a cease-fire, a hudna, until the storm passes."
Meanwhile, "extremists who extol terrorism identify [what is happening in the PA] as a threat to the only arena in which they currently have freedom of action. Therefore, they have all mobilized to set off a wave of severe terrorism aimed at torpedoing any chance of renewing the [diplomatic] process."
This effort, as last week's attack in Tel Aviv once again proved, is being supported by terrorists from Europe. "This attack is related to earlier incidents, like the infiltration of Hussein Makdad and Jihad Shuman [two Hezbollah operatives carrying European passports who were arrested in Israel - A.H.]. They have always been inserted at particular political-diplomatic moments in Israel.
"The astonishing thing is who we are dealing with: The Tel Aviv bombers were two British citizens of Pakistani origin, who have nothing to do with us, but they fell under the influence of incitement that led them to come here to murder Jews and commit suicide." Is this an omen of a cultural or religious war? "We are already there."
Not pessimistic
But despite this last statement, Ya'alon does not think the conflict with the Palestinians is unresolvable. "I don't see things pessimistically. We are at the height of a regional earthquake that stems from America's national security strategy, which has identified targets to deal with in the fields of the war on terror, unconventional weapons and irresponsible regimes.
"If they manage to stabilize a regime with a democratic flavor in Iraq, this will have an effect far beyond Iraq. In neighboring Iran, the internal struggle is at its height. The people voted for reform, but the conservatives still hold the loci of power. Will there be an internal change there? The developments in Iraq could certainly accelerate this process. The Iranians are ripe to get rid of the mullahs."
Nevertheless, he maintained a cautious and skeptical approach: The new Palestinian government, he said, so far does not herald an end to terror, while Syria's promises to the U.S. are far from being carried out.
"The Syrians meet all the American criteria for membership in the axis of evil," he said. "This is an irresponsible regime that has chemical weapons and employs terrorism. There is no doubt that the Syrians are under pressure as a result of the situation they found themselves in after the American attack on Iraq, as well as their behavior during the attack: They allowed terrorists to enter Iraq from their territory and transferred antitank missiles and night vision equipment to Iraq. There are also serious suspicions that Syria helped Iraq to hide some of its forbidden capabilities. Syria is currently directly in America's sights because of its behavior."
Military Intelligence depicts Syria as a balloon that is rapidly losing air and sinking. To regain altitude, the leadership must jettison all unnecessary baggage. This means handing over all escaped Iraqi officials in its terrority - and later, a series of steps that greatly interest Israel: allowing the Lebanese Army to deploy in the south of the country, dismantling Hezbollah's rocket batteries in south Lebanon and expelling the headquarters of various terrorist organizations from Damascus.
"These headquarters are not public relations offices, as the Syrians claim," said Ya'alon. "This is a ridiculous denial, like their denial of the chemical weapons in their possession. These are command posts that direct terror operations from Lebanon and in the Palestinian theater, finance, push, encourage and set policy.
"The Syrians understand that they are now being asked to pay, but so far we are only hearing words. They announced that the offices were closed? So they announced it. I haven't yet noticed [the organizations] ceasing to function - not Hamas, not Islamic Jihad and not the Popular Front [for the Liberation of Palestine]. I also haven't yet seen them disarming Hezbollah."
Ya'alon views the American victory in Iraq as an opportunity for reducing the influence and freedom of action of extremist groups and terrorist organizations throughout the Middle East. Will Syrian President Bashar Assad bow to American pressure? "The determining factor will be the amount of diplomatic and economic pressure. One cannot speak of Assad's decisions as irrational, but there are concerns about his maturity and responsibility. Anyone who, during the second week of the Iraqi war, decides to send a convoy of arms to Iraq raises questions about his abilities.
"What is worrying is that Assad makes decisions on the basis of Al Jazeera [the Arab satellite television station] - and that is likely to be a basis for erroneous decisions. We have been in this situation before [with Assad's father], in the tension between Israel and Syria in the summer of 1996."
The crucial second year
Moshe Ya'alon will finish his first year as chief of staff in July. An old adage says that what the head of a large organization does not accomplish during his first year in office will never will get done. But in Ya'alon's case, it is the second year that is likely to be the most important. This summer, the General Staff will finish drafting plans for a major structural reform of the IDF that is based on three main developments: the American victory in Iraq, the lessons of that war for the IDF and the cuts in the defense budget.
Some of the changes are already evident: some units shut down, fewer tanks and more infantry, a focus on technological capabilities and the newest airplanes, and the dismissal of thousands of career soldiers. But Ya'alon declined to elaborate on the plan, saying merely that it would "have a significant impact on the size of the army and the composition of the forces." |
